According to the Spectator's Frazer Nelson, "if gossip in the bars of the Commons is any indicator, Tory support for the Union is draining". Frazer questions whether the Tories have the motivation or energy to fight an SNP that is determined to undermine the Union.
Lord Forsyth has suggested that David Cameron could pull the rug from under Alex Salmond's feet by offering Scotland the referendum on independence that Gordon Brown refuses them. In this way the Scots can ratify the Union before Alex Salmond has the chance to exploit the backlash against public spending cuts by a Tory government.
If we win, the first thing David Cameron should do is spirit a bill through parliament to get on with it. Otherwise we will have these bogus games where the nationalists claim Scots would be better off independent and anything difficult is blamed on being in the UK and not having their own powers. Anyone looking at the seriousness of the problems we are in can see that there are some very difficult decisions ahead and the last thing we want here is to have some smart aleck trying to turn it all into constitutional grievances. We should get on with it and put it to the people. If people want to get out of the United Kingdom so be it. Otherwise let’s get on with dealing with the enormous problems.
There has been an inexorable decline in Conservative fortunes in Scotland since 1955 when they won half the popular vote and half the parliamentary seats. Their decision to campaign against devolution and their refusal to participate in the Scottish Constitutional Convention contributed to their failure to win a single Scottish seat in 1997. No longer able to claim to be a true 'Party of the Union' there is now, according to Prof Andrew Gamble, "an influential strand of opinion within the party [that] has begun to question whether holding fast to the Union is any longer in the Conservative interest" [Parliamentary Brief; 15 July, 2008].
In 2010 it is unlikely that the Conservatives will have improved much on their present tally of one Scottish MP. Conscious of the Conservative's Englishness, David Cameron has promised to govern Scots with respect and pledged to do everything "in my power to ensure that the SNP will not be able to split up the UK". But Cameron may need more than just words, because in Scotland Tory promises butter no turnips. The Conservatives need to demonstrate their respect for Scotland.
There may be a Conservative and Unionist advantage to be gained from taking the timing of the referendum on Scottish independence out of the SNP's hands. There may also be advantage to be gained in limiting the referendum question to a straight Yes or No on independence and leaving out any poll on further devolved powers.
If the Conservatives included a promise to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in their manifesto for the next general election, do you think this would:
If the Tories promise a referendum for England too, it would make a big difference to potential Conservative votes in England.They would bring in many votes from the BNP English Democrats and UKIP.However, I think the tories can win England without them so I doubt they will offer a referendum for the English.
I second Hotspur's comment.
The fact is, Timing is Everything.
The incoming administration will have just days to announce a pretty savage curtailment in public spending. Because if they don't do it straight away, the markets will take fright and force their hand - the current deficit is simply unsustainable. And this is assuming we don't suffer a Gilts strike and have to turn to the IMF before the General Election is called!
If I remember correctly, Napoleon said he preferred his Generals to be "lucky". Alec Salmond seems to be proving to be extremely lucky in the timing of these events.
What do you mean, Hotspur? A referendum in England on Scottish independence (only in England?) or a referendum on the dissolution of the union?
Timing is everything, I agree. Collectively it would do the Unionists good to take the initiative away from the SNP but individually I think it would damage whichever party did that because it would be seen as nothing more than a cynical attempt to control the timing of the referendum and the questions asked.
I'm not sure how it would be viewed in England, but surely questions would be raised as to why it is always Scotland that gets to vote on the Union and never England.
If anything it is up to the outgoing Labour administration to challenge the SNP, afterall, they gave Scotland devolution and it was under their watch that Alex Salmond came to power.
There's certainly no chance of England being given the chance to ratify the Union, as Forsyth suggests, because that would lead to a public debate on England's place in the Union and England's nationhood/statehood, which is something they want to avoid at all cost.
We are talking mainly about England Hendre, but a referendum should include all of the Dis- United Kingdom
on whether to abolish it or perhaps with the option of a federal union. However, each country should only vote for itself, for instance if Wales England and Northern Ireland voted No but Scotland Yes, we should not hold them to remain in the union. ditto all.
In the event that Scotland voted to leave the Union it would kinda invalidate the English, Welsh and Northern Irish vote to stay in the Union. The 'Union' is between England and Scotland.
As far as England and Scotland are concerned it's an all for one, and one for all Union. If England and Scotland split there is no United Kingdom, which is why it's always amusing to hear political commentators talk about 'Scotland leaving the Union'. Scotland can only end the Union, not leave it.
That’s what I was getting at!
With regard to Forsyth’s suggestion and the timing of a referendum, I agree with your first point, Gareth.
As to the second point, the Tories are showing great reluctance to say whether they would allow a referendum to move from Part 3 to Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006 so I can't imagine them being tempted by a 'bring it on' style referendum on Scottish independence. Even if a Scottish referendum delivers a 'no' vote in 2010 the Tories will still have to find some justification for holding/not holding a referendum in Wales.
I thought a symposium of the Constitutional Unit had come to the conclusion that Scotland could secede from the union leaving some form of United Kingdom to continue?
With all due respect to the Constitution Unit, which is none, we would be in uncharted waters and subject to the wranglings of constitutional lawyers and public opinion.
It would be expected that England (or England, Wales and Northern Ireland) would be the successor state and take on the international obligations and territories of the former United Kingdom. But I imagine that the SNP and the English, Welsh and Northern Irish public would want some say in that.
If the Tories included a pledge to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence it would immediately initiate an intensified debate, not only on Scotland's constitutional position, but also on England's.
The fact that the SNP cannot secure a majority in the present Scottish Parliament for an independence referendum, means that Labour could then accuse the Tories of needlessly putting the whole issue of the stability of the United Kingdom on the line with all the ancillary detrimental effects on investment decisions in Scotland.
Added to this it would play into the SNP's hands because it would move the focus of the general election away from UK-wide bread and butter issues towards a debate on whether Scotland gains or looses by being part of the Union. In the former the SNP traditionally gets frozen out by the mainly London based media, in the latter the SNP could hope to get lots of opportunities to air their views.
These are the kind of considerations the Tory party will no doubt have already considered. But more important than any of this is the fact that it's long term effects cannot be predicted. The Tories are even more frightened of the prospect of the creation of an English Parliament than they are of the SNP. It's useful to remember that restoring greatness was the main thrust of Thatcher's rhetoric. This is an enduring Tory theme and informs everything that Cameron says on the SNP.
Uncharted waters indeed ... including, as you say, the British overseas territories. Would the SNP demand a slice of the British Antartic Territory or insist on having the Chagos so they can return it to the poor old Chagossians? That would be interesting!
I have to say I don't personally buy this idea the Scotland cannot leave, but can only end the Union. Vanity might tempt some Scots to this view, but Alex Salmond, I suspect, is not one of them.
There are lots of reason's why this is unlikely. It is in neither's interests to put this view about. The British establishment would want to limit the damage and disruption of Scotland leaving. The Scottish government would also want to portray any break-up as uncomplicated.
Even the legal/constitutional position is not as strong as this would suggest. Attempts to assert, legally, that the Act of Union created a new state [as in the case against the designation of the monarch as Queen Elisabeth II] have failed, even when adjudicated on in Scotland.
Jack Straw referred yesterday, in the Guardian/Unlock Democracy seminar, to the 1707 Union as entrenching Scots Law, but such deference is exceptional. The official position is to keep such issues vague and argue from the principle of the sovereignty of the UK/English Parliament, the former being seen as a continuation of the latter.
In effect, the position is that the UK is England continuing. This is why an English Parliament can be denied, and why the Tories would see the creation of such a Parliament as the antithesis of greatness. For them such a Parliament for England would have the effect of elevating Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, while weakening and diminishing Central Government at the same time as breaking-up and dispelling the mythology of English/British Greatness.
I vaguely remember hearing that Alex Salmond had proposed that Scotland might continue to use organisations such as the DVLA post-independence, which suggests he believes the UK in some form or other will continue.
One thing I don’t quite buy is this oft-repeated assertion that the SNP will be looking to undermine the union at every opportunity with a Tory Government at Westminster. Polling indicates that roughly a third of the elctorate is in favour of independence. The SNP needs to double that at least and has to play quite a careful game. Perhaps they will be able to pump up the rhetoric a bit more but how receptive will the Scottish electorate to any (perceived) crude posturing?
Opinion polls on support for independence have varied over time and depending on the question posed. Whatever the current level of support, the problem for the Tories is that devolution, and especially the advent of a SNP government, has entrenched in the whole of the electorate in Scotland the sense of being a separate political constituency.
This existed before but is much stronger now. Even Thatcher was persuaded to respect this. The Scottish Secretaries she picked were allowed to water down her policies in Scotland to the extent that they deemed necessary. Cameron is hoping that by saying he will show respect he can pull off the same thing in the modern context of devolution, but its a difficult thing to pull off.
Garry Gibbon on the Channel 4 blog today illustrates the point. Commenting on the YouGov poll on reaction in Scotland to the release of Megrahi, he sees the narrow margin either way as vindicating Brown's decision to remain silent. If he had attacked the decision he may well have pushed the balance of opinion in Scotland decisively in favour of the SNP government as Scots reacted to what they saw as Westminster dictating to Scotland.
Cameron's promise to show respect means he understands all this, but it will be hard for him to avoid being portrayed as dictating when he is British Prime Minister and has a different political philosophy to the consensus in Scotland.
It'll make no difference whatsoever. Scottish independence is a not enough of an issue in England and the Scots who want a chance to vote for independence will vote SNP anyway. The only way that the Tories will ever gain support on this issue would be if they dropped their unionist baggage and came out in favour of English, Scottish and Welsh independence and campaigned for a yes vote in all three countries.